Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Egypt part two; Global warming and homeostasis

Many reasons have been blamed for the explosion of political movement that is sweeping the Arab world. The political change in Tunisia and Egypt spreading to parts unknown (hopefully Libya and Yemen) can be said to have many root causes, first and foremost are the horrible human rights conditions and lack of political freedoms.

It actually seems to be the perfect political storm of the right age demographic in an oppressive regime with the right technology. 8-ball, corner pocket and it all comes tumbling down. One of those straws that broke this camel’s back must be declared as Climate Change. This a direct correlation between the effects of Climate Change and Political Unrest and the thing that we must understand is that this is just the beginning if trends don’t change.

The logic is that Climate Change causes adverse effects on crop production in the world. This causes the supply of food to decrease, this mixed with increased populations (demand) and fuel prices increase food prices significantly to the point where many in the world cannot afford food. In a world where you cannot find work, your government is oppressive and you cannot even afford food anymore even if you had a job, protest on a massive scale must occur.

While this has, in a way, happened before, if we remember riots from 2008, and how that got better, things are going to get much worse before they get better folks. We have to remember; these are the birth-pains of a better world. These instabilities in the oil rich nations and 3rd world nations are going to increase oil prices. This is going to make Wall Street fearful. This is going to increase other prices. Transportation will go up, food will go up, it will be scary. Just a few quotes;

The oddest thing about the situation is that the riots are fueling the fire for the price increase. The market hates uncertainty and reacts poorly to political unrest. This causes prices to go up. In fact "Rice, wheat, corn and soybean futures gained in Chicago on speculation governments in emerging economies will boost imports after soaring food prices spurred protests in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Yemen. The unrest may worsen because grain hoarding “will intensify,” according to a report yesterday from New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Cocoa surged 10 percent, the most since September 2009, on signs supplies will be disrupted from the Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest grower."

Now, in the long run this means that hypothetically, once the riots subside, speculation will cause the prices to normalize eventually and food will become cheaper than it is now giving who ever gains controlled political clout and the credit for the lowering. This is, however a temporary thing. As population continues to rise, and global climates change, causing more and more difficulty to generate enough affordable food, something will eventually have to give to get us back to homeostasis and many fear that something will be massive population loss.

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